淮河上游暴雨事件评估模型   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

郑国  薛建军  范广洲  李泽椿 《应用气象学报》2011,22(6):753-759

暴雨灾害是我国面临的主要气象灾害之一,对其进行评估具有重要的理论和现实意义。该文以气象降水数据为基础建立数据集,采用统计分析的方法建立暴雨事件评估模型,对淮河流域上游的暴雨事件进行评估。该模型选取了4项描述暴雨事件的指标:区域平均日降水量、区域最大日降水量、覆盖范围和持续时间,通过对淮河上游16个站1961—2007年逐日降水量资料的统计分析,按概率分布划分出这4项指标的各等级标准,从而建立暴雨事件等级标准评估矩阵,而需要评估的暴雨事件等级则通过计算该暴雨事件各指标所组成的向量与等级标准评估矩阵中各等级所组成的列向量之间的欧式距离来确定。通过对历史资料及2008年4月—2010年7月发生的暴雨事件实况资料进行评估,发现评估结果与其所造成的实际影响对应较好,说明该模型对暴雨事件等级的划分较为合理。  相似文献   

An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Wanqiu Wang  Pingping Xie  Soo-Hyun Yoo  Yan Xue  Arun Kumar  Xingren Wu 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(7-8):1601-1620

This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere?Cocean?Csea ice?Cland forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998?C2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious jumps in soil moisture between adjacent streams. Thirdly, there is an inconsistency in long-term sea ice extent variations over the Arctic regions between the CFSR and other observations with the CFSR showing smaller sea ice extent before 1997 and larger extent starting in 1997. These deficiencies may have impacts on the application of the CFSR for climate diagnoses and predictions. Relationships between surface heat fluxes and SST tendency and between SST and precipitation are analyzed and compared with observational estimates and other reanalyses. Global mean fields of surface heat and water fluxes together with radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are documented and presented over the entire globe, and for the ocean and land separately.  相似文献   

太原市温度的时空变化特征     

郭雪 《山西气象》2011,(3):19-22

利用太原市1951年-2010年的实测气象资料,采用线性趋势分析、累计距平、Mann—Kendall方法,分析了太原市年均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、02时平均气温、14时平均气温的变化趋势。得出了太原市总体上呈现增暖趋势,从1977年开始出现了显著增温;夜间气温增温幅度高于白天增温幅度,冬季增温幅度高于夏季增温幅度;最低平均气温的增温幅度最大等结论。  相似文献   

鄱阳湖非平稳水位波动及其与长江的交互作用关系(英文)     

戴雪  万荣荣  杨桂山 《地理学报(英文版)》2015,(3):274-288

Seasonal water-level fluctuations(WLF) play a dominate role in lacustrine ecosystems. River-lake interaction is a direct factor in changes of seasonal lake WLF, especially for those lakes naturally connected to upstream and downstream rivers. During the past decade, the modification of WLF in the Poyang Lake(the largest freshwater lake in China) has caused intensified flood and irrigation crises, reduced water availability, compromised water quality and extensive degradation of the lake ecosystem. There has been a conjecture as to whether the modification was caused by its interactions with Yangtze River. In this study, we investigated the variations of seasonal WLF in China’s Poyang Lake by comparing the water levels during the four distinct seasons(the dry season, the rising season, the flood season, and the retreating season) before and after 2003 when the Three Gorge Dam operated. The Water Surface Slope(WSS) was used as a representative parameter to measure the changes in river-lake interaction and its impacts on seasonal WLF. The results showed that the magnitude of seasonal WLF has changed considerably since 2003; the seasonal WLF of the Poyang Lake have been significantly altered by the fact that the water levels both rise and retreat earlier in the season and lowered water levels in general. The fluctuations of river-lake interactions, in particular the changes during the retreating season, are mainly responsible for these variations in magnitude of seasonal WLF. This study demonstrates that WSS is a representative parameter to denote river-lake interactions, and the results indicate that more emphasis should be placed on the decrease of the Poyang Lake caused by the lowered water levels of the Yangtze River, especially in the retreating season.  相似文献   

水杨酸对蛋白核小球藻(Chlorella pyrenoidosa) 生长及抗逆相关基因的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

丁聪聪  徐年军  张琳  孙雪  李亚鹤 《海洋与湖沼》2015,46(6):1451-1460

以蛋白核小球藻(Chlorella pyrenoidosa)为研究对象, 首先克隆了热激蛋白70(HSP70)和磷 酸甘油酸激酶(PGK)基因全长序列, 然后研究了0-20μg/mL 水杨酸对高温胁迫下HSP70 和PGK 基 因表达, 以及蛋白核小球藻生长、可溶性糖和蛋白含量的影响。结果获得了蛋白核小球藻HSP70 基 因的cDNA 序列2405 bp, 包括60 bp 的5'-非编码区(UTR)、1959 bp 的开放阅读框(ORF)和386 bp 的3'-UTR 和PGK 基因的cDNA 序列1664 bp, 包括35 bp 的5'-UTR, 1398 bp ORF 和231 bp 3'-UTR. 序列比较和分析表明该蛋白核小球藻HSP70 序列与其它绿藻的同源性高达83%-91%, PGK 为 70%-75%.荧光定量PCR 结果显示随着水杨酸浓度的增加, HSP70 和PGK 的表达量在12h 和24h 均有所增加, 而在10 μg/mL 水杨酸浓度下表达量最大, 12h 时分别为对照组的2.57 倍和1.56 倍, 24h 则为1.71 倍和1.79 倍。1-20μg/mL 水杨酸可促进该藻的比生长速率、可溶性糖和蛋白含量的升高。 本文结果表明一定浓度水杨酸对高温胁迫蛋白核小球藻有缓解作用, 且5 和10 μg/mL 水杨酸的效果 最显著。  相似文献   

沿海GNSS观测网中BERNESE软件处理方案比较     

王朝阳  周兴华  张化疑  周东旭  侯雪 《海洋测绘》2015,35(1):52-55

采用BERNESE软件"OBS-MAX"和"SHORTEST"两种独立基线生成方式和三种网平差基准定义方法制定出6种GNSS数据后处理方案,分别对中国沿海GNSS业务化观测网2009年与2011年的两批数据处理,并从外符合和内符合精度两个方面进行分析比较。结果表明:采用"OBS-MAX"独立基线生成方式得出的坐标精度更优,尤其是在原始观测数据质量不高的情况下;在网平差基准定义上,采用固定解得出的坐标内符合精度优于最小约束解,但其外符合精度较差。  相似文献   

Spatio-seasonal patterns of fish diversity,Haizhou Bay,China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

苏巍  薛莹  张崇良  任一平 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2015,33(1):121-134

Spatial-seasonal patterns in fish diversity in Haizhou Bay were studied based on stratified random surveys conducted in 2011.Principal component analysis was conducted to distinguish different diversity components,and the relationships among 11 diversity indices were explored.Generalized additive models were constructed to examine the environmental effects on diversity indices.Eleven diversity indices were grouped into four components:(1) species numbers and richness,(2) heterogeneous indices,(3) evenness,and(4) taxonomic relatedness.The results show that diversity indices among different components are complementary.Spatial patterns show that fish diversity was higher in coastal areas,which was affected by complex bottom topography and spatial variations of water mass and currents.Seasonal trends could be best explained by the seasonal migration of dominant fish species.Fish diversity generally declined with increasing depth except for taxonomic distinctness,which increased with latitude.In addition,bottom temperature had a significant effect on diversity index of richness.These results indicate that substrate complexity and environmental gradients had important influences on fish diversity patterns,and these factors should be considered in fishery resource management and conservation.Furthermore,diversity in two functional groups(demersal/pelagic fishes) was influenced by different environmental factors.Therefore,the distribution of individual species or new indicators in diversity should be applied to examine spatio-seasonal variations in fish diversity.  相似文献   

DNA barcode assessment of Ceramiales (Rhodophyta) in the intertidal zone of the northwestern Yellow Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杜国英  吴菲菲  郭皓  薛红凡  茅云翔 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2015,33(3):685-695

A total of 142 specimens of Ceramiales(Rhodophyta) were collected each month from October 2011 to November 2012 in the intertidal zone of the northwestern Yellow Sea. These specimens covered 21 species,14 genera,and four families. Cluster analyses show that the specimens had a high diversity for the three DNA markers,namely,partial large subunit r RNA gene(LSU),universal plastid amplicon(UPA),and partial mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene(COI). No intraspecific divergence was found in our collection for these markers,except for a 1–3 bp divergence in the COI of Ceramium kondoi,Symphyocladia latiuscula,and Neosiphonia japonica. Because short DNA markers were used,the phylogenetic relationships of higher taxonomic levels were hard to evaluate with poor branch support. More than half species of our collection failed to find their matched sequences owing to shortage information of DNA barcodes for macroalgae in Gen Bank or BOLD(Barcode of Life Data) Systems. Three specimens were presumed as H eterosiphonia crispella by cluster analyses on DNA barcodes assisted by morphological identification,which was the first record in the investigated area,implying that it might be a cryptic or invasive species in the coastal area of northwestern Yellow Sea. In the neighbor-joining trees of all three DNA markers,H eterosiphonia japonica converged with D asya spp. and was distant from the other Heterosiphonia spp.,implying that H. japonica had affinities to the genus Dasya. The LSU and UPA markers amplified and sequenced easier than the COI marker across the Ceramiales species,but the COI had a higher ability to discriminate between species.  相似文献   

基于SBAS时序分析的大同地面沉降与地下水活动研究     

杨成生  刘媛媛  敖萌 《国土资源遥感》2015,(1):127-132

大同盆地是汾渭盆地北端一个地面沉降较严重的区域,地下水开采是该区域地面沉降发生的一个重要原因。然而地下水活动与地面沉降在空间和时间的相关性却鲜有研究。为了掌握该地区地下水活动与地面沉降的内在联系,该文基于Envisat ASAR数据,利用短基线集(small baseline subset,SBAS)-In SAR技术对大同盆地地面沉降形变特征进行监测;同时利用地下水位监测数据,研究地面沉降中心与地下水位漏斗在空间和时间上的对应关系,定量分析2处地下水位波动与地表形变的关系。研究表明,地下水开采是大同盆地水源地地面沉降的主要原因,但并非所有的地下水位漏斗都存在地面沉降。该研究成果对指导该地区地下水开采及控制地面沉降有一定参考价值。  相似文献   

High-order Taylor series expansion methods for error propagation in geographic information systems   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jie Xue  Yee Leung  Jiang-Hong Ma 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2015,17(2):187-206

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